Why Today’s Housing Market Is Not About To Crash

There’s been some concern lately that the housing market is headed for a crash. And given some of the affordability challenges in the housing market, along with a lot of recession talk in the media, it’s easy enough to understand why that worry has come up.

But the data clearly shows today’s market is very different than it was before the housing crash in 2008. Rest assured, this isn’t a repeat of what happened back then. Here’s why.

It’s Harder To Get a Loan Now

It was much easier to get a home loan during the lead-up to the 2008 housing crisis than it is today. Back then, banks had different lending standards, making it easy for just about anyone to qualify for a home loan or refinance an existing one. As a result, lending institutions took on much greater risk in both the person and the mortgage products offered. That led to mass defaults, foreclosures, and falling prices.

Things are different today as purchasers face increasingly higher standards from mortgage companies. The graph below uses data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) to show this difference. The lower the number, the harder it is to get a mortgage. The higher the number, the easier it is.

Unemployment Recovered Faster This Time

While the pandemic caused unemployment to spike over the last couple of years, the jobless rate has already recovered back to pre-pandemic levels (see the blue line in the graph below). Things were different during the Great Recession as a large number of people stayed unemployed for a much longer period of time (see the red in the graph below):

Here’s how the quick job recovery this time helps the housing market. Because so many people are employed today, there’s less risk of homeowners facing hardship and defaulting on their loans. This helps put today’s housing market on stronger footing and reduces the risk of more foreclosures coming onto the market.

There Are Far Fewer Homes for Sale Today

There were also too many homes for sale during the housing crisis (many of which were short sales and foreclosures), and that caused prices to fall dramatically. Today, there’s a shortage of inventory available overall, primarily due to years of underbuilding homes.

The graph below uses data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and the Federal Reserve to show how the months’ supply of homes available now compares to the crash. Today, unsold inventory sits at just a 2.6-months’ supply. There just isn’t enough inventory on the market for home prices to come crashing down like they did in 2008.

Equity Levels Are Near Record Highs

That low inventory of homes for sale helped keep upward pressure on home prices over the course of the pandemic. As a result, homeowners today have near-record amounts of equity (see graph below):

And, that equity puts them in a much stronger position compared to the Great Recession. Molly Boesel, Principal Economist at CoreLogic, explains:

“Most homeowners are well positioned to weather a shallow recession. More than a decade of home price increases has given homeowners record amounts of equity, which protects them from foreclosure should they fall behind on their mortgage payments.”

Bottom Line

The graphs above should ease any fears you may have that today’s housing market is headed for a crash. The most current data clearly shows that today’s market is nothing like it was last time.

Marty Gale

Buy or Sell with Marty Gale

"Its The Experience"

Principal Broker and Owner of Utah Realty™

Licensed Since 1986

CERTIFIED LUXURY HOME MARKETING SPECIALIST (CLHM)

PSA (Pricing Strategy Advisor)

General Contractor 2000 (in-active)

e-pro (advanced digital marketing) 2001

Certified Residential Specialist 2009

Certified Negotiation Expert 2014

Master Certified Negotiation Expert 2014

Certified Probate Specialist Since 2018

Senior Real Estate Specialist

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Cinco de Mayo -Mexican Independence Day!

Today is Cinco de Mayo May 5th Happy Cinco de Mayo!

Cinco de Mayo is a holiday that is celebrated in the United States every year on May 5th. While many people associate the holiday with Mexican Independence Day, which is actually celebrated on September 16th, Cinco de Mayo has a different meaning and history.

The holiday commemorates the Mexican army’s victory over the French at the Battle of Puebla on May 5, 1862. At the time, Mexico was in a state of financial crisis and had defaulted on its debts to several European countries, including France. In response, France sent troops to Mexico to demand payment and establish a French-controlled government.

Despite being outnumbered and outgunned, the Mexican army, led by General Ignacio Zaragoza, was able to defeat the French forces in a decisive battle at Puebla. While the victory did not end the French occupation of Mexico, it was a significant morale boost for the Mexican people and helped to rally support for the resistance movement.

So why is Cinco de Mayo celebrated in the United States? While the holiday is not widely celebrated in Mexico outside of the state of Puebla, it has become a popular cultural celebration in the United States, particularly in areas with large Mexican-American populations.

In the United States, Cinco de Mayo is often celebrated with parades, festivals, and parties that feature traditional Mexican food, music, and dance. It has become a way for Mexican-Americans to celebrate their heritage and culture, and for non-Mexican Americans to learn more about Mexican history and traditions.

However, it’s worth noting that Cinco de Mayo has also been criticized for being overly commercialized and for perpetuating stereotypes about Mexican culture. Some have argued that the holiday has become more about drinking and partying than about honoring the historical significance of the Battle of Puebla.

Regardless of how you choose to celebrate Cinco de Mayo, it’s important to remember the holiday’s historical roots and to appreciate the contributions of Mexican-Americans to American culture and society. By learning more about the meaning and history of the holiday, we can all gain a greater appreciation for the diversity and richness of our shared cultural heritage.

How Homeowners Win When They Downsize

Downsizing has long been a popular option when homeowners reach retirement age. But there are plenty of other life changes that could make downsizing worthwhile. Homeowners who have experienced a change in their lives or no longer feel like their house fits their needs may benefit from downsizing too. U.S. News explains:

“Downsizing is somewhat common among older people and retirees who no longer have children living at home. But these days, younger people are also looking to downsize to save money on housing . . .”

And when inflation has made most things significantly more expensive, saving money where you can has a lot of appeal. So, if you’re thinking about ways to budget differently, it could be worthwhile to take your home into consideration.

When you think about cutting down on your spending, odds are you think of frequent purchases, like groceries and other goods. But when you downsize your house, you often end up downsizing the bills that come with it, like your mortgage payment, energy costs, and maintenance requirements. Realtor.com shares:

“A smaller home typically means lower bills and less upkeep. Then there’s the potential windfall that comes from selling your larger home and buying something smaller.”

That windfall is thanks to your home equity. If you’ve been in your house for a while, odds are you’ve developed a considerable amount of equity. Your home equity is an asset you can use to help you buy a home that better suits your needs today.

And when you’re ready to make a move, your team of real estate experts will be your guides through every step of the process. That includes setting the right price for your house when you sell, finding the best location and size for your next home, and understanding what you can afford at today’s mortgage rate.

What This Means for You

If you’re thinking about downsizing, ask yourself these questions:

Do the original reasons I bought my current house still stand, or have my needs changed since then?
Do I really need and want the space I have right now, or could somewhere smaller be a better fit?
What are my housing expenses right now, and how much do I want to try to save by downsizing?

Once you know the answers to these questions, meet with a real estate advisor to get an answer to this one: What are my options in the market right now? A local housing market professional can walk you through how much equity you have in your house and how it positions you to win when you downsize.