The Ultimate Truth about Housing Affordability
Courtesy of Marty Gale Utah Realty
There have been many headlines decrying an “affordability crisis” in the residential real estate market. While it is true that buying a home is less affordable than it had been over the last ten years, we need to understand why and what that means.
On a monthly basis, the National Association of Realtors (NAR), produces a Housing Affordability Index. According to NAR, the index…
“…measures whether or not a typical family earns enough income to qualify for a mortgage loan on a typical home at the national and regional levels based on the most recent price and income data.”
Their methodology states:
“To interpret the indices, a value of 100 means that a family with the median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home. An index above 100 signifies that family earning the median income has more than enough income to qualify for a mortgage loan on a median-priced home, assuming a 20 percent down payment.”
So, the higher the index, the more affordable it is to purchase a home. Here is a graph of the index going back to 1990:
It is true that the index is lower today than any year from 2009 to 2017. However, we must realize the main reason homes were more affordable. That period of time immediately followed a housing crash and there were large numbers of distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales). Those properties were sold at large discounts.
Today, the index is higher than any year from 1990 to 2008. Based on historic home affordability data, that means homes are more affordable right now than any other time besides the time following the housing crisis.
With mortgage rates remaining low and wages finally increasing, we can see that it is MORE AFFORDABLE to purchase a home today than it was last year!
Bottom Line
With wages increasing, price appreciation moderating, and mortgage rates remaining near all-time lows, purchasing a home is a great move based on historic affordability numbers.
8 Tips For First-Time Homebuyers
First-time homebuyers should follow eight essential steps: assess debt and ensure a manageable debt-to-income ratio, check and correct credit score errors, review budget for additional costs, determine down payment, get preapproved for a mortgage, identify desired...
2.25% Fed Rate: Coming by 2027?
Fed projects a 2% in rate cuts by end of 2027. Forecast: Fed funds rate to decline to 2.25%–2.50% by late 2027. Despite tariff-driven inflation bumps, slowing growth will push Fed to cut further. 10-year Treasury yield forecast to fall to 3.25% by 2028, down from 4.2%...
2025 Housing Forecast: Housing Prices up 3%
The experts forecast a 3% national housing price increase in 2025 due to limited supply. High mortgage rates discourage homeowners from selling, keeping supply low and supporting price stability.
Will 2026 Finally Jumpstart Home Sales?
High mortgage rates in 2025 slowed home sales, but improvement is expected starting in 2026. Experts predict existing home sales may ↑ 10–15% as conditions improve in 2026.
Homebuyers, Don’t Wait for a Miracle Rate
Mortgage rates increased after five weeks of declines, driven by stronger-than-expected economic indicators. Experts forecast minimal rate relief through late 2025 despite Federal Reserve predictions of future cuts. Waiting for rate drops may backfire as housing...
Slight Dip Ahead for U.S. Home Prices
U.S. home prices are projected to decline by 0.9% by Early-Q2 2026. The forecast reverses earlier predictions of price increases, signaling a cooling housing market.
Mortgage Rate Predictionsfor Q3 2025
Long Forecast predicts slight drops: July 6.84%, August 6.79%, September 6.74%. MBA expects 6.7% average in Q3; NAR, Realtor.com see 6.2%–6.4% by year-end. 15-year fixed rates forecasted to drop from 6.01% in July to 5.88% in September. Experts expect gradual rate...
Are mortgage rates falling? What homebuyers need to know
Mortgage rates for 30-year fixed loans have dropped to around 6.63%, the lowest since April, due to a weaker-than-expected jobs report causing Treasury yields to fall. Experts suggest this dip may be temporary but advise buyers to act now rather than wait for perfect...
The Salt Lake metro area is shifting to a renter’s market after an apartment construction boom.
Apartment vacancy rates rose to 7.1% in July, signaling an overbuilt market with slowed rent growth. Despite high rents, the market favors renters, with rent days on market decreasing. Utah's average rent dropped to $1,399 in 2025, causing many to delay home...
Forget Tariffs! There’s a New Crisis Impacting Rate Cuts
The Fed held rates at 4.25–4.5%, ignoring Trump’s calls for aggressive cuts. Trump imposed steep tariffs, triggering fears of price hikes on goods and vehicles.