Back in March, as the nation’s economy was shut down because of the coronavirus, many were predicting the real estate market would face a major collapse. Some forecasts called for a 15-20% decline in transactions. However, six months later, it seems as though the housing market has fully recovered.
Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, announced last week:
“Since hitting a low point during the initial stages of the pandemic, the only major industry to display immunity to the economic impacts of the coronavirus is the housing market. Housing has experienced a strong V-shaped recovery and is now exceeding pre-pandemic levels.”
The Economic & Strategic Research Group at Fannie Mae upgraded its forecast for home sales last week:
“Housing data over the past month continued to show a strong V-shape rebound, helping drive the broader economy. Existing home sales jumped to a pace not seen since 2006…We have substantially upgraded our forecasts for both new and existing home sales. For 2020, total home sales are now expected to be 1.3% higher than in 2019.”
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) agrees. In their last Pending Sales Report, NAR shared projections from Chief Economist Lawrence Yun:
“Yun forecasts existing-home sales to ramp up to 5.8 million in the second half. That expected rebound would bring the full-year level of existing-home sales to 5.4 million, a 1.1% gain compared to 2019.”
Yun’s forecast for 2021 was even more optimistic, stating, “Home sales will ramp up again next year, increasing between 8% – 12%.”
The housing market has come roaring back and looks as though it may even surpass last year’s success.
Frank Martell, President and CEO of CoreLogic, hit the nail on the head when he said, “On an aggregated level, the housing economy remains rock solid despite the shock and awe of the pandemic.”
Buyer activity is continuing to rise. Let’s connect to discuss why selling your house now could get you the price and terms you’ve been waiting for.
There has been much talk around the possibility that Americans are feeling less enamored with the benefits of living in a large city and now may be longing for the open spaces that suburban and rural areas provide.
In a recent Realtor Magazine article, they discussed the issue and addressed comments made by Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR):
“While migration trends were toward urban centers before the pandemic, real estate thought leaders have predicted a suburban resurgence as home buyers seek more space for social distancing. Now the data is supporting that theory. Coronavirus and work-from-home flexibility is sparking the trend reversal, Yun said. More first-time home buyers and minorities have also been looking to the suburbs for affordability, he added.”
NAR surveyed agents across the country asking them to best describe the locations where their clients are looking for homes (they could check multiple answers). Here are the results of the survey:
According to real estate agents, there’s a strong preference for less populated locations such as suburban and rural areas.
Zelman & Associates surveys brokers and owners of real estate firms for their monthly Real Estate Brokers Report. The last report revealed that 68% see either a ‘moderate’ or ‘significant’ shift to more suburban locations. Here are the results of the survey:
No one knows if this will be a short-term trend or an industry game-changer. For now, there appears to be a migration to more open environments.
When most of us begin searching for a home, we naturally start by looking at the price. It’s important, however, to closely consider what else impacts the purchase. It’s not just the price of the house that matters, but the overall cost in the long run. Today, that’s largely impacted by low mortgage rates. Low rates are actually making homes more affordable now than at any time since 2016, and here’s why.
Today’s low rates are off-setting rising home prices because it’s less expensive to borrow money. In essence, purchasing a home while mortgage rates are this low may save you significantly over the life of your home loan.
Taking a look at the graph below with data sourced from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the higher the bars rise, the more affordable homes are. The orange bars represent the period of time when homes were most affordable, but that’s also reflective of when the housing bubble burst. At that time, distressed properties, like foreclosures and short sales, dominated the market. That’s a drastically different environment than what we have in the housing market now.
The green bar represents today’s market. It shows that homes truly are more affordable than they have been in years, and much more so than they were in the normal market that led up to the housing crash. Low mortgage rates are a big differentiator driving this affordability.
Experts agree that this unique moment in time is making homes incredibly affordable for buyers.
Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, NAR:
“Although housing prices have consistently moved higher, when the favorable mortgage rates are factored in, an overall home purchase was more affordable in 2020’s second quarter compared to one year ago.”
Bill Banfield, EVP of Capital Markets, Quicken Loans:
“No matter what you’re looking for, this is a great time to buy since the current low interest rates can stretch your spending power.”
“Those shopping for a home can afford 10 percent more home than they could have one year ago while keeping their monthly payment unchanged. This translates into nearly $32,000 more buying power.”
“Homeowners are the clear winners. Low mortgage rates mean the cost of owning is at historically low levels and who gains all the benefits of strong house price appreciation? Homeowners.”
When purchasing a home, it’s important to think about the overall cost, not just the price of the house. Homes on your wish list may be more affordable today than you think. Let’s connect to discuss how affordability plays a role in our local market, and your long-term homeownership goals.
Some people say that when the market is hot, “I can sell my home myself,” or “I don’t need an experienced agent because it costs money,” or “how hard can it be?”
Curtis Bullock From the Salt Lake Board of Realtors® Writes
I can tell you that after being an attorney in this industry for almost two decades, there are no “easy” transactions in real estate right now – even in this hot seller’s market. Selling or purchasing a home requires a unique skill set and knowledge base to ensure the transaction goes smoothly. If you have recently purchased or sold a home and felt like it was easy, it’s probably because your Realtor® was solving problems left and right behind the scenes without you knowing about it.
I’ve shared this before, but here is a list of potential trouble spots your Realtor® will help you avoid when purchasing or selling a home. I’ve seen most of these happen when a seller or buyer tries DIY’ing the purchase or sale of their home:
* Seller misunderstanding what “as-is” condition means.
* How to deal with multiple offers.
* Husband or wife didn’t sign the REPC. Causes dispute over validity of the contract.
* CC&R’s not given to buyer causing problems.
* Seller disclosure form not delivered to buyer by the deadline. Causing lawsuit.
* Buyer not reviewing the Commitment for Title Insurance.
* Seller not providing Buyer Agent with Commitment for Title insurance by the deadline.
* Double contract. Loan fraud.
* Not using the correct contract or disclosure form in the appropriate situation.
* Buyer’s receive the key prior to recording, funding doesn’t occur, dispute arises.
* Buyer moving from out of state on friday to Settle at title company, doesn’t fund until Tuesday (Monday is a holiday) and becomes upset.
* Confusion on how the Time Clause Addendum works. Causing a disagreement.
* Lease agreements not provided to buyer before seller disclosure deadline.
* Low appraisal. Buyer sends notice of cancellation but forgets to include the appraisal.
* Multiple offers. Seller puts the property under contract with two buyers at the same time. Dispute arises.
* Counter offer is not withdrawn before accepting another offer. Problem arises.
* 10 different addenda included with the REPC. Confusion as to what has been agreed upon.
* Subject to Sale contingency not satisfied causing a domino effect resulting in two cancelled contracts.
* Missing initials on one page of the REPC causing a dispute.
* Seller repairs not completed. What to do next?
* Not delivering a document by the deadline. Dispute arises.
* Mold in the home detected. Who is responsible? Can I cancel the contract?
* Termites or radon detected in the home. What do I do now?
* No legal access to the lot. Implied easement issue.
* $10,000 earnest money not delivered by the buyer on time. Major dispute arises.
* Money wired and lost due to wire fraud.
* Mechanics lien filed on home that was “recently remodeled.”
* Sloppy language in an addendum causing a dispute.
* Air conditioner doesn’t work.
* Conflict between what is on the MLS and what is in the REPC.
* Multiple offers disclosed without seller approval, prospective buyers back out.
* Seller decides not to sell a week before settlement. Seller default. Lawsuit arises.
* Buyer backing out after deadlines expires. Buyer default. Lawsuit arises.
* Dispute over who pays for the HOA transfer fee.
* Dispute over who pays for the HOA special assessment.
* After Settlement but prior to Funding & Recording, house is vandalized.
* Missing dates on the REPC.
* Can’t get the HOA docs.
* Language on the REPC crossed out causing ambiguity.
* Sections of the REPC left blank causing ambiguity.
* The wrong address listed on the REPC.
* Two addendum number 4 – causing ambiguity and dispute.
* Seller failing to disclose major structural problem with the home.
* Fair Housing issue created after buyer submits letter with offer.
* “TBD” filled in on the REPC in too many places causing uncertainty.
* Poorly filled out forms and contracts causing problems.
* Representing multiple buyers at the same time on the same property causing a conflict.
* Angry tenant when showing a property.
* Seller didn’t accurately fill out the seller disclosure form.
* Checking “Acceptance” on page 6 of the REPC, then checking “Counter” on Addendum #1 that was also included in the offer.
Hiring an experienced Realtor® will be the best money you spend this year.
