3 Reasons Why We Are Not Heading Toward Another Housing Crash
With home prices softening, some are concerned that we may be headed toward the next housing crash. However, it is important to remember that today’s market is quite different than the bubble market of twelve years ago.
Here are three key metrics that will explain why:
- Home Prices
- Mortgage Standards
- Foreclosure Rates
HOME PRICES
A decade ago, home prices depreciated dramatically, losing about 29% of their value over a four-year period (2008-2011). Today, prices are not depreciating. The level of appreciation is just decelerating.
Home values are no longer appreciating annually at a rate of 6-7%. However, they have still increased by more than 4% over the last year. Of the 100 experts reached for the latest Home Price Expectation Survey, 94 said home values would continue to appreciate through 2019. It will just occur at a lower rate.
MORTGAGE STANDARDS
Many are concerned that lending institutions are again easing standards to a level that helped create the last housing bubble. However, there is proof that today’s standards are nowhere near as lenient as they were leading up to the crash.
The Urban Institute’s Housing Finance Policy Center issues a quarterly index which,
“…measures the percentage of home purchase loans that are likely to default—that is, go unpaid for more than 90 days past their due date. A lower HCAI indicates that lenders are unwilling to tolerate defaults and are imposing tighter lending standards, making it harder to get a loan. A higher HCAI indicates that lenders are willing to tolerate defaults and are taking more risks, making it easier to get a loan.”
Last month, their January Housing Credit Availability Index revealed:
“Significant space remains to safely expand the credit box. If the current default risk was doubled across all channels, risk would still be well within the pre-crisis standard of 12.5 percent from 2001 to 2003 for the whole mortgage market.”
FORECLOSURE INVENTORY
Within the last decade, distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) made up 35% of all home sales. The Mortgage Bankers’ Association revealed just last week that:
“The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the fourth quarter was 0.95 percent…This was the lowest foreclosure inventory rate since the first quarter of 1996.”
Bottom Line
After using these three key housing metrics to compare today’s market to that of the last decade, we can see that the two markets are nothing alike.
3 Reasons Why We Are Not Heading Toward Another Housing Crash
With home prices softening, some are concerned that we may be headed toward the next housing crash. However, it is important to remember that today’s market is quite different than the bubble market of twelve years ago.
Here are three key metrics that will explain why:
- Home Prices
- Mortgage Standards
- Foreclosure Rates
HOME PRICES
A decade ago, home prices depreciated dramatically, losing about 29% of their value over a four-year period (2008-2011). Today, prices are not depreciating. The level of appreciation is just decelerating.
Home values are no longer appreciating annually at a rate of 6-7%. However, they have still increased by more than 4% over the last year. Of the 100 experts reached for the latest Home Price Expectation Survey, 94 said home values would continue to appreciate through 2019. It will just occur at a lower rate.
MORTGAGE STANDARDS
Many are concerned that lending institutions are again easing standards to a level that helped create the last housing bubble. However, there is proof that today’s standards are nowhere near as lenient as they were leading up to the crash.
The Urban Institute’s Housing Finance Policy Center issues a quarterly index which,
“…measures the percentage of home purchase loans that are likely to default—that is, go unpaid for more than 90 days past their due date. A lower HCAI indicates that lenders are unwilling to tolerate defaults and are imposing tighter lending standards, making it harder to get a loan. A higher HCAI indicates that lenders are willing to tolerate defaults and are taking more risks, making it easier to get a loan.”
Last month, their January Housing Credit Availability Index revealed:
“Significant space remains to safely expand the credit box. If the current default risk was doubled across all channels, risk would still be well within the pre-crisis standard of 12.5 percent from 2001 to 2003 for the whole mortgage market.”
FORECLOSURE INVENTORY
Within the last decade, distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) made up 35% of all home sales. The Mortgage Bankers’ Association revealed just last week that:
“The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the fourth quarter was 0.95 percent…This was the lowest foreclosure inventory rate since the first quarter of 1996.”
Bottom Line
After using these three key housing metrics to compare today’s market to that of the last decade, we can see that the two markets are nothing alike.
Achieving Your Homebuying Dreams in 2024
Achieving Your Homebuying Dreams in 2024 [INFOGRAPHIC] Some Highlights Planning to buy a home in 2024? Here’s what to focus on. Improve your credit score, plan for your down payment, get pre-approved, and decide what’s most important to you. Let’s connect so you have...
Why Pre-Approval Is Your Homebuying Game Changer
Why Pre-Approval Is Your Homebuying Game Changer If you’re thinking about buying a home, pre-approval is a crucial part of the process you definitely don’t want to skip. So, before you start picturing yourself in your new living room or dining on your future...
Thinking About Buying a Home? Ask Yourself These Questions
Thinking About Buying a Home? Ask Yourself These Questions If you’re thinking of buying a home this year, you’re probably paying closer attention than normal to the housing market. And you’re getting your information from a variety of channels: the news, social media,...
Things To Consider If Your House Didn’t Sell
Things To Consider If Your House Didn’t Sell If your listing has expired and your house didn’t sell, it's completely normal to feel a mix of frustration and disappointment. Understandably, you're probably wondering what may have gone wrong. Here are three questions to...
What Experts Say About The Housing Market in 2024
The Benefits of Working With an Experienced Agent When You Sell Your House
The Benefits of Working With an Experienced Agent When You Sell Your House Some Highlights When it comes to selling your house, the expertise of a trusted real estate agent can make a big difference. They’ll explain what’s happening today, what that means for you, and...
Retiring Soon? Why Moving Might Be the Perfect Next Step
Retiring Soon? Why Moving Might Be the Perfect Next Step If you’re thinking about retirement or have already retired this year, it’s a good time to consider if your current house is still a good fit for the next chapter in your life. Fortunately, you may be in a...
Get Ready To Buy a Home by Improving Your Credit Score
Get Ready To Buy a Home by Improving Your Credit Score As the new year approaches, the idea of buying a home might be on your mind. It’s an exciting goal to set, and it's never too early to start laying the groundwork. One crucial step to prepare for homeownership is...
Get Your House Ready To Sell This Winter
Get Your House Ready To Sell This Winter [INFOGRAPHIC] Some Highlights As you get ready to sell your house, there are a few things you should add to your to-do list to make it inviting and boost curb appeal. To name just a couple, it’s a good idea to declutter, take...
Why Mortgage Rates Could Continue To Decline
Why Mortgage Rates Could Continue To Decline When you read about the housing market, you’ll probably come across some information about inflation or recent decisions made by the Federal Reserve (the Fed). But how do those two things impact you and your homebuying...