3 Reasons Why We Are Not Heading Toward Another Housing Crash
With home prices softening, some are concerned that we may be headed toward the next housing crash. However, it is important to remember that today’s market is quite different than the bubble market of twelve years ago.
Here are three key metrics that will explain why:
- Home Prices
- Mortgage Standards
- Foreclosure Rates
HOME PRICES
A decade ago, home prices depreciated dramatically, losing about 29% of their value over a four-year period (2008-2011). Today, prices are not depreciating. The level of appreciation is just decelerating.
Home values are no longer appreciating annually at a rate of 6-7%. However, they have still increased by more than 4% over the last year. Of the 100 experts reached for the latest Home Price Expectation Survey, 94 said home values would continue to appreciate through 2019. It will just occur at a lower rate.
MORTGAGE STANDARDS
Many are concerned that lending institutions are again easing standards to a level that helped create the last housing bubble. However, there is proof that today’s standards are nowhere near as lenient as they were leading up to the crash.
The Urban Institute’s Housing Finance Policy Center issues a quarterly index which,
“…measures the percentage of home purchase loans that are likely to default—that is, go unpaid for more than 90 days past their due date. A lower HCAI indicates that lenders are unwilling to tolerate defaults and are imposing tighter lending standards, making it harder to get a loan. A higher HCAI indicates that lenders are willing to tolerate defaults and are taking more risks, making it easier to get a loan.”
Last month, their January Housing Credit Availability Index revealed:
“Significant space remains to safely expand the credit box. If the current default risk was doubled across all channels, risk would still be well within the pre-crisis standard of 12.5 percent from 2001 to 2003 for the whole mortgage market.”
FORECLOSURE INVENTORY
Within the last decade, distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) made up 35% of all home sales. The Mortgage Bankers’ Association revealed just last week that:
“The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the fourth quarter was 0.95 percent…This was the lowest foreclosure inventory rate since the first quarter of 1996.”
Bottom Line
After using these three key housing metrics to compare today’s market to that of the last decade, we can see that the two markets are nothing alike.
3 Reasons Why We Are Not Heading Toward Another Housing Crash
With home prices softening, some are concerned that we may be headed toward the next housing crash. However, it is important to remember that today’s market is quite different than the bubble market of twelve years ago.
Here are three key metrics that will explain why:
- Home Prices
- Mortgage Standards
- Foreclosure Rates
HOME PRICES
A decade ago, home prices depreciated dramatically, losing about 29% of their value over a four-year period (2008-2011). Today, prices are not depreciating. The level of appreciation is just decelerating.
Home values are no longer appreciating annually at a rate of 6-7%. However, they have still increased by more than 4% over the last year. Of the 100 experts reached for the latest Home Price Expectation Survey, 94 said home values would continue to appreciate through 2019. It will just occur at a lower rate.
MORTGAGE STANDARDS
Many are concerned that lending institutions are again easing standards to a level that helped create the last housing bubble. However, there is proof that today’s standards are nowhere near as lenient as they were leading up to the crash.
The Urban Institute’s Housing Finance Policy Center issues a quarterly index which,
“…measures the percentage of home purchase loans that are likely to default—that is, go unpaid for more than 90 days past their due date. A lower HCAI indicates that lenders are unwilling to tolerate defaults and are imposing tighter lending standards, making it harder to get a loan. A higher HCAI indicates that lenders are willing to tolerate defaults and are taking more risks, making it easier to get a loan.”
Last month, their January Housing Credit Availability Index revealed:
“Significant space remains to safely expand the credit box. If the current default risk was doubled across all channels, risk would still be well within the pre-crisis standard of 12.5 percent from 2001 to 2003 for the whole mortgage market.”
FORECLOSURE INVENTORY
Within the last decade, distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) made up 35% of all home sales. The Mortgage Bankers’ Association revealed just last week that:
“The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the fourth quarter was 0.95 percent…This was the lowest foreclosure inventory rate since the first quarter of 1996.”
Bottom Line
After using these three key housing metrics to compare today’s market to that of the last decade, we can see that the two markets are nothing alike.
Does Home Insurance Shield Hurricane Damage?
Dwelling and personal property coverage repair your home and replace belongings, subject to policy limits and deductibles. Hurricane deductibles differ: Typically 1–5% of dwelling coverage, significantly impacting your out-of-pocket costs.
Utah rent increase proposal fails for third year in a row
A bill in Utah aimed at requiring landlords to provide 60 days' notice for rent increases was rejected for the third consecutive year, with a tied vote in the House Business, Labor, and Commerce Committee. Supporters argued it would benefit renters, but the...
Happy Presidents’ Day
Presidents' Day celebrates all past and present U.S. presidents. It reflects on the nation's founding principles and values, including the Constitution and union. Reading of Washington's Farewell Address by a U.S. senator remains an annual event for...
Utahns agree housing is a problem. What they don’t agree on is why
A recent survey by Envision Utah reveals that over two-thirds of Utah residents believe the state faces serious housing issues, yet many are unclear about the causes. Key factors identified include rising interest rates, construction costs, and an influx of new...
Fannie Mae’s 2025 Housing Forecast
Mortgage rates remain above 6%, with slight home price growth and low supply continuing to pressure affordability. Existing home sales expected to recover slightly from multi-decade lows due to limited inventory and affordability barriers.
Happy Valentine’s Day
Valentine’s Day occurs every February 14 around the world, and candy, flowers and gifts are exchanged between loved ones, all in the name of St. Valentine Valentine greetings were popular as far back as the Middle Ages, though written Valentine’s didn’t begin to...
How to Invest Globally in Real Estate
Investing globally in Real Estate requires understanding market dynamics, including rent growth and job creation trends.Tap into local expertise, including brokers, property managers, and market analysts, to gain on-the-ground insights.
Looking to Sell a Home in 2025? Take These 5 Steps
Start by researching and interviewing realtors knowledgeable about your local market before selling.A fresh home makeover, including new paint and flooring, boosts appeal and first impressions.
Homeowner Tax Breaks: All the Ways Your House Can Boost Your Tax Refund
Owning a house in the US is expensive, with rapidly rising home prices and hidden expenses. However, tax credits and deductions for homeowners can lead to a bigger tax refund. Homeowners can take advantage of tax deductions by itemizing their deductions using Form...
How 2025 Trends Fuel Homeownership Potential
Home sales may rise 1.5%, prices climb 3.7%, and mortgage rates stay above 6% despite slight cuts. A historic 11.7% home inventory jump and 13.8% new construction surge mark supply resurgence in 2025.