Strength of the Economy Is Surprising the Experts
We’re currently in the longest economic recovery in U.S. history. That has caused some to ask experts to project when the next economic slowdown (recession) could occur. Two years ago, 67% of the economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) for the Economic Forecasting Survey predicted we would have a recession no later than the end of this year (2020). The same study done just three months ago showed more than one third of the economists still saw an economic slowdown right around the corner.
The news caused concern among consumers. This is evidenced by a recent survey done by realtor.com that shows 53% of home purchasers (first-time and repeat buyers) currently in the market believe a recession will occur by the end of this year.
Wait! It seems the experts are changing their minds….
Now, in an article earlier this month, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) revealed only 14.3% of those economists now believe we’re in danger of a recession occurring this year (see graph below):
The WSJ article strongly stated,
“The U.S. expansion, now in its 11th year, will continue through the 2020 presidential election with a healthy labor market backing it up, economists say.”
This optimism regarding the economy was repeated by others as well.
CNBC, quoting Goldman Sachs economists:
“Just months after almost everyone on Wall Street worried that a recession was just around the corner, Goldman Sachs said a downturn is unlikely over the next several years. In fact, the firm’s economists stopped just short of saying that the U.S. economy is recession-proof.”
“When Barron’s gathers some of Wall Street’s best minds—as we do every January for our annual Roundtable—we expect some consensus, some disagreement…But the 10 veteran investors and economists who convened in New York on Jan. 6 at the Barron’s offices agree that there’s almost no chance of a recession this year.”
“The U.S. economy is heading into 2020 at a pace of steady, sustained growth after a series of interest rate cuts and the apparent resolution of two trade-related threats mostly eliminated the risk of a recession.”
Robert A. Dye, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank:
“I expect that the U.S. economy will avoid a recession in 2020.”
Bottom Line
There probably won’t be a recession this year. That’s good news for you, whether you’re looking to buy or sell a home.
Are We in a Housing Bubble?
The Top Reasons for Selling Your House
The Top Reasons for Selling Your House Many of today’s homeowners bought or refinanced their homes during the pandemic when mortgage rates were at history-making lows. Since rates doubled in 2022, some of those homeowners put their plans to move on hold, not wanting...
You May Not Need as Much as You Think for Your Down Payment
You May Not Need as Much as You Think for Your Down Payment Some Highlights Many people believe you need to put down 20% of the purchase price when you buy a home. But recent homebuyers actually put down far less on their purchase. And with programs like FHA loans, VA...
Create Your Perfect Home by Perfecting It After You Purchase
Want To Sell Your House? Price It Right.
Want To Sell Your House? Price It Right. Last year, the housing market slowed down in response to higher mortgage rates, and that had an impact on home prices. If you’re thinking of selling your house soon, that means you’ll want to adjust your expectations...
Pre-Approval in 2023: What You Need To Know
Pre-Approval in 2023: What You Need To Know One of the first steps in your homebuying journey is getting pre-approved. To understand why it’s such an important step, you need to understand what pre-approval is and what it does for you. Business Insider explains: “In a...
What Past Recessions Tell Us About the Housing Market
What Past Recessions Tell Us About the Housing Market It doesn’t matter if you’re someone who closely follows the economy or not, chances are you’ve heard whispers of an upcoming recession. Economic conditions are determined by a broad range of factors, so rather than...
Is It Time To Sell Your Second Home?
Is It Time To Sell Your Second Home? During the pandemic, second homes became popular because of the rise in work-from-home flexibility. That’s because owning a second home, especially in the luxury market, allowed those homeowners to spend more time in their favorite...
Today’s Housing Market Is Nothing Like 15 Years Ago
Today’s Housing Market Is Nothing Like 15 Years Ago There’s no doubt today’s housing market is very different than the frenzied one from the past couple of years. In the second half of 2022, there was a dramatic shift in real estate, and it caused many people to make...
What Experts Are Saying About the 2023 Housing Market
What Experts Are Saying About the 2023 Housing Market If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home soon, you probably want to know what you can expect from the housing market this year. In 2022, the market underwent a major shift as economic uncertainty and...