What’s Happening with Mortgage Rates, and Where Will They Go from Here?

What’s Happening with Mortgage Rates, and Where Will They Go from Here?

What’s Happening with Mortgage Rates, and Where Will They Go from Here?

What’s Happening with Mortgage Rates, and Where Will They Go from Here? | MyKCM

Based on the Primary Mortgage Market Survey from Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has increased by 1.2% (3.22% to 4.42%) since January of this year. The rate jumped by more than a quarter of a point from just a week ago. Here’s a visual to show how mortgage rate movement throughout 2021 was steady compared to the rapid increase in mortgage rates this year:

What’s Happening with Mortgage Rates, and Where Will They Go from Here? | MyKCM

Just a few months ago, Freddie Mac projected mortgage rates would average 3.6% in 2022. Earlier this month, Fannie Mae forecast mortgage rates would average 3.8% in 2022. As the chart above shows, rates have already surpassed those projections.

Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, explained in a press release last week:

“This week, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased by more than a quarter of a percent as mortgage rates across all loan types continued to move up. Rising inflation, escalating geopolitical uncertainty and the Federal Reserve’s actions are driving rates higher and weakening consumers’ purchasing power.”

Where Are Mortgage Rates Going from Here?

In a recent article by Bankrate, several industry experts weighed in on where rates might be headed going forward. Here are some of their forecasts:

Greg McBride, Chief Financial Analyst, Bankrate:

“With inflation figures continuing to surprise to the upside, mortgage rates will remain above 4.0% on the 30-year fixed.”

Nadia Evangelou, Senior Economist and Director of Forecasting, National Association of Realtors (NAR):

“While higher short-term interest rates will push up mortgage rates, I expect some of this impact to be mitigated eventually through lower inflation. Thus, I expect the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to continue to rise, although we aren’t likely to see the big jumps that occurred over the past few weeks.”

Len Kiefer, Deputy Chief Economist, Freddie Mac:

“Mortgage rates are likely to continue to move higher throughout the balance of 2022, although the pace of rate increases is likely to moderate.”

In a recent realtor.com article, another expert adds to the conversation:

Danielle Hale, Chief Economist, realtor.com:

“. . . As markets digest the Fed’s updated economic projections, I anticipate a continued increase in mortgage rates over the next several months. . . .”

What Does This Mean for You if You’re Looking To Buy a Home?

With both mortgage rates and home values expected to increase throughout the year, it would be better to buy sooner rather than later if you’re able. That’s because it’ll cost you more the longer you wait. But, there is a possible silver lining to buying a home right now. While you’ll be paying a higher price and a higher mortgage rate than you would have last year, rising prices do have a long-term benefit once you buy.

If you purchase a home today valued at $400,000 and put 10% down, you would be taking out a $360,000 mortgage. According to mortgagecalculator.net, at a 4.42% fixed mortgage rate, your mortgage payment would be $1,807 a month (this does not include insurance, taxes, and other fees because those vary by location).

Now, let’s put that mortgage payment into a new perspective based on the substantial growth in equity that comes with the escalation in home prices. Every quarter, Pulsenomics surveys a panel of over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts about their expectations for future home prices in the United States. Last week, Pulsenomics released their latest Home Price Expectation Survey. The survey reveals that the average of the experts’ forecasts calls for a 9% increase in home values in 2022.

Based on those projections, a $400,000 house you buy today could be valued at $436,000 by this time next year. If you break that down, that means the equity in your home would increase by $3,000 a month over that period. That’s greater than the estimated monthly payment above. Granted, the increase in your net worth is tied to the home, but it is one way to put the home price appreciation to use in a way that benefits you.

Bottom Line

Paying a higher price for a home and a higher mortgage rate can be a difficult pill to swallow. However, waiting will just cost you more. If you’re ready, willing, and able to buy a home, now will be a better time than a year, or even six months from now. Let’s connect to begin the process today.

Utah Real Estate Tip – there are no “easy” transactions.

Utah Real Estate Tip – there are no “easy” transactions.

 
 

Real Estate Legal Tip – there are no “easy” transactions.

Some people say that when the market is hot, “I can sell my home myself,” or “I don’t need an experienced agent because it costs money,” or “how hard can it be?”

Curtis Bullock From the Salt Lake Board of Realtors® Writes 

I can tell you that after being an attorney in this industry for almost two decades, there are no “easy” transactions in real estate right now – even in this hot seller’s market. Selling or purchasing a home requires a unique skill set and knowledge base to ensure the transaction goes smoothly. If you have recently purchased or sold a home and felt like it was easy, it’s probably because your Realtor® was solving problems left and right behind the scenes without you knowing about it.

I’ve shared this before, but here is a list of potential trouble spots your Realtor® will help you avoid when purchasing or selling a home. I’ve seen most of these happen when a seller or buyer tries DIY’ing the purchase or sale of their home:

* Seller misunderstanding what “as-is” condition means.
* How to deal with multiple offers.
* Husband or wife didn’t sign the REPC. Causes dispute over validity of the contract.
* CC&R’s not given to buyer causing problems.
* Seller disclosure form not delivered to buyer by the deadline. Causing lawsuit.
* Buyer not reviewing the Commitment for Title Insurance.
* Seller not providing Buyer Agent with Commitment for Title insurance by the deadline.
* Double contract. Loan fraud.
* Not using the correct contract or disclosure form in the appropriate situation.
* Buyer’s receive the key prior to recording, funding doesn’t occur, dispute arises.
* Buyer moving from out of state on friday to Settle at title company, doesn’t fund until Tuesday (Monday is a holiday) and becomes upset.
* Confusion on how the Time Clause Addendum works. Causing a disagreement.
* Lease agreements not provided to buyer before seller disclosure deadline.
* Low appraisal. Buyer sends notice of cancellation but forgets to include the appraisal.
* Multiple offers. Seller puts the property under contract with two buyers at the same time. Dispute arises.
* Counter offer is not withdrawn before accepting another offer. Problem arises.
* 10 different addenda included with the REPC. Confusion as to what has been agreed upon.
* Subject to Sale contingency not satisfied causing a domino effect resulting in two cancelled contracts.
* Missing initials on one page of the REPC causing a dispute.
* Seller repairs not completed. What to do next?
* Not delivering a document by the deadline. Dispute arises.
* Mold in the home detected. Who is responsible? Can I cancel the contract?
* Termites or radon detected in the home. What do I do now?
* No legal access to the lot. Implied easement issue.
* $10,000 earnest money not delivered by the buyer on time. Major dispute arises.
* Money wired and lost due to wire fraud.
* Mechanics lien filed on home that was “recently remodeled.”
* Sloppy language in an addendum causing a dispute.
* Air conditioner doesn’t work.
* Conflict between what is on the MLS and what is in the REPC.
* Multiple offers disclosed without seller approval, prospective buyers back out.
* Seller decides not to sell a week before settlement. Seller default. Lawsuit arises.
* Buyer backing out after deadlines expires. Buyer default. Lawsuit arises.
* Dispute over who pays for the HOA transfer fee.
* Dispute over who pays for the HOA special assessment.
* After Settlement but prior to Funding & Recording, house is vandalized.
* Missing dates on the REPC.
* Can’t get the HOA docs.
* Language on the REPC crossed out causing ambiguity.
* Sections of the REPC left blank causing ambiguity.
* The wrong address listed on the REPC.
* Two addendum number 4 – causing ambiguity and dispute.
* Seller failing to disclose major structural problem with the home.
* Fair Housing issue created after buyer submits letter with offer.
* “TBD” filled in on the REPC in too many places causing uncertainty.
* Poorly filled out forms and contracts causing problems.
* Representing multiple buyers at the same time on the same property causing a conflict.
* Angry tenant when showing a property.
* Seller didn’t accurately fill out the seller disclosure form.
* Checking “Acceptance” on page 6 of the REPC, then checking “Counter” on Addendum #1 that was also included in the offer.

Hiring an experienced Realtor® will be the best money you spend this year.

Image may contain: sky and cloud, text that says'R KEEP CALM AND HIRE A REALTOR'
Courtesy of

Curtis Bullock
Salt  Lake  Board of Realtors®
Real Estate Tops Best Investment Poll for 7th Year Running

Real Estate Tops Best Investment Poll for 7th Year Running

Real Estate Tops Best Investment Poll for 7th Year Running

Real Estate Tops Best Investment Poll for 7th Year Running | MyKCM

Every year, Gallup conducts a survey of Americans to determine their choice for the best long-term investment. Respondents are asked to select real estate, stocks/mutual funds, gold, savings accounts/CDs, or bonds.

For the seventh year in a row, real estate has come out on top as the best long-term investment. Gallup explained:

“Real estate remains the most favored investment to Americans, as has been the case since 2013, when the housing market was on the rebound. More than a third of Americans have named real estate as the top investment since 2016.”

This year’s results indicated 35% of Americans chose real estate, followed by stocks at 21%. The full results covering the last decade are shown in the chart below:Real Estate Tops Best Investment Poll for 7th Year Running | MyKCM

Bottom Line

The belief of the American people in the stability of housing as a long-term investment remains strong, even through the many challenges our economy faces today.

Economists Forecast Recovery to Begin in the Second Half of 2020

Economists Forecast Recovery to Begin in the Second Half of 2020

Economists Forecast Recovery to Begin in the Second Half of 2020

Economists Forecast Recovery to Begin in the Second Half of 2020 | MyKCM

With the U.S. economy on everyone’s minds right now, questions about the country’s financial outlook continue to come up daily. The one that seems to keep rising to the top is: when will the economy begin to recoverWhile no one knows exactly how a rebound will play out, expert economists around the country are becoming more aligned on when the recovery will begin.

According to the latest Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey, which polls more than 60 economists on a monthly basis, 85.3% believe a recovery will begin in the second half of 2020 (see graph below):Economists Forecast Recovery to Begin in the Second Half of 2020 | MyKCMThere seems to be a growing consensus among these experts that the second half of this year will be the start of a turnaround in this country.

Chris Hyzy, Chief Investment Officer for Merrill notes:

“We fully expect the economy could begin to pick up in late June and July with a strong recovery in the fourth quarter.” 

In addition, five of the major financial institutions are also forecasting positive GDP in the second half of the year. Today, four of the five expect a recovery to begin in the third quarter of 2020, and all five agree a recovery should start by the fourth quarter (see graph below):Economists Forecast Recovery to Begin in the Second Half of 2020 | MyKCM

Bottom Line

The vast majority of economists, analysts, and financial institutions are in unison, indicating an economic recovery should begin in the second half of 2020. Agreement among these leading experts is stronger than ever.

Experts Predict Economic Recovery Should Begin in the Second Half of 2020

Experts Predict Economic Recovery Should Begin in the Second Half of 2020

Experts Predict Economic Recovery Should Begin in the Second Half of the Year

Experts Predict Economic Recovery Should Begin in the Second Half of the Year | MyKCM

One of the biggest questions we all seem to be asking these days is: When are we going to start to see an economic recovery? As the country begins to slowly reopen, moving forward in strategic phases, business activity will help bring our nation back to life. Many economists indicate a recovery should begin to happen in the second half of this year. Here’s a look at what some of the experts have to say.

Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman

“I think there’s a good chance that there’ll be positive growth in the third quarter. And I think it’s a reasonable expectation that there’ll be growth in the second half of the year…

So, in the long run, I would say the U.S. economy will recover. We’ll get back to the place we were in February; we’ll get to an even better place than that. I’m highly confident of that. And it won’t take that long to get there.”

Nonpartisan Analysis for the U.S Congress

“The economy is expected to begin recovering during the second half of 2020 as concerns about the pandemic diminish and as state and local governments ease stay-at-home orders, bans on public gatherings, and other measures. The labor market is projected to materially improve after the third quarter; hiring will rebound and job losses will drop significantly as the degree of social distancing diminishes.”

Neel Kashkari, President, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank

“I think we need to prepare for a more gradual recovery while we hope for that quicker rebound.”

We’re certainly not out of the woods yet, but clearly many experts anticipate we’ll see a recovery starting this year. It may be a bumpy ride for the next few months, but most agree that a turnaround will begin sooner rather than later.

During the planned shutdown, as the economic slowdown pressed pause on the nation, many potential buyers and sellers put their real estate plans on hold. That time coincided with the traditionally busy spring real estate season. As we look ahead at this economic recovery and we begin to emerge back into our communities over the coming weeks and months, perhaps it’s time to think about putting your real estate plans back into play.

Bottom Line

The experts note a turnaround is on the horizon, starting as early as later this year. If you paused your 2020 real estate plans, let’s connect today to determine how you can re-engage in the process as the country reopens and the economy begins a much-anticipated rebound.

Will Utah Home Values Appreciate or Depreciate in 2020?

Will Utah Home Values Appreciate or Depreciate in 2020?

Will Home Values Appreciate or Depreciate in 2020?

Will Home Values Appreciate or Depreciate in 2020? | MyKCM

With the housing market staggered to some degree by the health crisis the country is currently facing, some potential purchasers are questioning whether home values will be impacted. The price of any item is determined by supply as well as the market’s demand for that item.

Each month the National Association of Realtors (NAR) surveys “over 50,000 real estate practitioners about their expectations for home sales, prices and market conditions” for the REALTORS Confidence Index.

Their latest edition sheds some light on the relationship between seller traffic (supply) and buyer traffic (demand) during this pandemic.

Buyer Demand

The map below was created after asking the question: “How would you rate buyer traffic in your area?”Will Home Values Appreciate or Depreciate in 2020? | MyKCMThe darker the blue, the stronger the demand for homes is in that area. The survey shows that in 34 of the 50 U.S. states, buyer demand is now ‘strong’ and 16 of the 50 states have a ‘stable’ demand.

Seller Supply

The index also asks: “How would you rate seller traffic in your area?”Will Home Values Appreciate or Depreciate in 2020? | MyKCMAs the map above indicates, 46 states and Washington, D.C. reported ‘weak’ seller traffic, 3 states reported ‘stable’ seller traffic, and 1 state reported ‘strong’ seller traffic. This means there are far fewer homes on the market than what is needed to satisfy the needs of buyers looking for homes right now.

With demand still stronger than supply, home values should not depreciate.

What are the experts saying?

Here are the thoughts of three industry experts on the subject:

Ivy Zelman:

“We note that inventory as a percent of households sits at the lowest level ever, something we believe will limit the overall degree of home price pressure through the year.”

Mark Fleming, Chief Economist, First American:

“Housing supply remains at historically low levels, so house price growth is likely to slow, but it’s not likely to go negative.”

Freddie Mac:

“Two forces prevent a collapse in house prices. First, as we indicated in our earlier research report, U.S. housing markets face a large supply deficit. Second, population growth and pent up household formations provide a tailwind to housing demand.”

Bottom Line

Looking at these maps and listening to the experts, it seems that prices will remain stable throughout 2020. If you’re thinking about listing your home, let’s connect to discuss how you can capitalize on the somewhat surprising demand in the market now.

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