Housing Market Forecast: What’s Ahead for the 2nd Half of 2024

As we move into the second half of 2024, here’s what experts say you should expect for home prices, mortgage rates, and home sales.

Home Prices Are Expected To Climb Moderately

Home prices are forecasted to rise at a more normal pace. The graph below shows the latest forecasts from seven of the most trusted sources in the industry:

The reason for continued appreciation? The supply of homes for sale. Jessica Lautz, Deputy Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains:

“One thing that seems to be pretty solid is that home prices are going to continue to go up, and the reason is that we don’t have housing inventory.”

While inventory is up compared to the last couple of years, it’s still low overall. And because there still aren’t enough homes to go around, that’ll keep upward pressure on prices.

If you’re thinking of buying, the good news is you won’t have to deal with prices skyrocketing like they did during the pandemic. Just remember, prices aren’t expected to drop. They’ll continue climbing, just at a slower pace.

So, getting into the market sooner rather than later could still save you money in the long run. Plus, you can feel confident experts say your home will grow in value after you buy it.

Mortgage Rates Are Forecast To Come Down Slightly

One of the best pieces of news for both buyers and sellers is that mortgage rates are expected to come down a bit, according to Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), and NAR (see chart below):

When you buy, even a small drop in mortgage rates can make a big difference in your monthly payments. For sellers, lower rates will bring more buyers back into the market, which can help you sell faster and potentially at a higher price. Plus, it may help you get off the fence, if you’ve been hesitant to sell due to today’s rates.

Home Sales Are Projected To Hold Steady

For 2024, the number of home sales will be about the same as last year and may even rise slightly. The graph below compares the 2024 home sales forecasts from Fannie Mae, MBA, and NAR to the 4.8 million homes that sold last year:

The average of the three forecasts is about 5 million sales in 2024 – a small increase from 2023. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, explains why:

“Job gains, steady mortgage rates and the release of inventory from pent-up home sellers will lead to more sales.”

With more inventory available and mortgage rates expected to go down, a few more homes are expected to be sold this year compared to last year. This means more people will be able to move. Let’s work together to make sure you’re one of them.

Bottom Line

If you have any questions or need help navigating the market, reach out.

How Buying or Selling a Home Benefits Your Community

If you’re thinking of buying or selling a house, it’s important to know it doesn’t just impact you—it helps out the local economy and your community, too.

Every year, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) puts out a report that breaks down the financial impact that comes from people buying and selling homes (see visual below):

When a house is sold, it really boosts the local economy. That’s because of all the people needed to build, fix up, and sell homes. Robert Dietz, Chief Economist at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), explains how the housing industry adds jobs to a community:

“. . . housing is a significant job creator. In fact, for every single-family home built, enough economic activity is generated to sustain three full-time jobs for a year . . .”

It makes sense that housing creates a lot of jobs because so many different kinds of work are involved in the industry.

Think about all the people involved with selling a house—city officials, contractors, lawyers, real estate agents, specialists, etc. Everyone has a job to do to make your deal go through. So, each transaction is a big help to those who work and live in your community.

Put simply, when you buy or sell a home, you’re helping out your neighbors. So, when you decide to move, you’re not just meeting your own needs—you’re also doing something good for your community. Just knowing your move helps so many people around you can give you a sense of empowerment as you make your decision this year.

Bottom Line

Every time a home is sold, it really helps out the local economy. If you’re ready to move, let’s get in touch. It won’t just change your life—it’ll also do a lot of good for the whole community.

Home Prices Forecast To Climb over the Next 5 Years

Some Highlights

• If you’re worried about what’s next for home prices, know the HPES shows experts are projecting they’ll continue to rise at least through 2028.
• Based on that forecast, if you bought a $400,000 house this year, experts say it could gain over $72,000 in equity over the next five years.
• If you’re worried about falling home prices, don’t be. Many experts forecast they’ll keep rising for years to come. If you have questions, let’s connect.

Don’t Believe Everything You Read About Home Prices

According to the latest data from Fannie Mae, 23% of Americans still think home prices will go down over the next twelve months. But why do roughly 1 in 4 people feel that way?

It has a lot to do with all the negative talk about home prices over the past year. Since late 2022, the media has created a lot of fear about a price crash and those concerns are still lingering. You may be hearing people in your own life saying they’re worried about home prices or see on social media that some influencers are saying prices are going to come tumbling down.

If you’re someone who still thinks prices are going to fall, ask yourself this: Which is a more reliable place to get your information – clickbait headlines and social media or a trusted expert on the housing market?

The answer is simple. Listen to the professionals who specialize in residential real estate.

Here’s the latest data you can actually trust. Housing market experts acknowledge that nationally, prices did dip down slightly late last year, but that was short-lived. Data shows prices have already rebounded this year after that slight decline in 2022 (see graph below):

But it’s not just Fannie Mae that’s reporting this bounce back. Experts from across the industry are showing it in their data too. And that’s why so many forecasts now project home prices will net positive this year – not negative. The graph below helps prove this point with the latest forecasts from each organization:

What’s worth noting is that, just a few short weeks ago, the Fannie Mae forecast was for 3.9% appreciation in 2023. In the forecast that just came out, that projection was updated from 3.9% to 6.7% for the year. This increase goes to show just how confident experts are that home prices will net positive this year.

So, if you believe home prices are falling, it may be time to get your insights from the experts instead – and they’re saying prices aren’t falling, they’re climbing.

Bottom Line

There’s been a lot of misleading information about home prices over the past year. And that’s still having an impact on how people are feeling about the housing market today. But it’s best not to believe everything you hear or read.

If you want information you can trust, turn to the real estate experts. Their data shows home prices are on the way back up and will net positive for the year. If you have questions about what’s happening in our local area, let’s connect.

Utah Realty has an exciting topic for our fall Season blog.

As the leaves change colors and the temperatures start to cool, we find ourselves eagerly anticipating the shifts and trends that will shape the real estate landscape in one of Utah’s most vibrant and sought-after areas. Whether you’re a homeowner, a buyer, or simply someone interested in the local market trends, join us as we explore the ins and outs of the Greater Salt Lake City housing market this season and uncover the possibilities that lie ahead.

Supply And Demand: Impact On Salt Lake City Housing Prices

The Greater Salt Lake City housing market has experienced significant fluctuations over the past few years, with a notable increase in demand and soaring prices. However, as we transition into the fall season, it is essential to examine the dynamics of supply and demand and their potential impact on housing prices in the area.

Supply and demand play a critical role in shaping the real estate market, and Salt Lake City is no exception. When the demand for homes outweighs the number of available properties, prices tend to rise. Conversely, when the supply of homes exceeds the demand, prices may stabilize or even decline.

Over the past year, the Salt Lake City housing market has witnessed tight inventory levels, placing significant pressure on potential buyers. The combination of population growth, a strong economy, and past low interest rates has led to increased demand for housing in the region. As a result, prices have skyrocketed, making it challenging for many first-time buyers to enter the market.

The supply of homes in Salt Lake City has struggled to keep pace with the rate of demand growth. Limited land availability, strict zoning regulations, and a slower rate of new home construction have contributed to this supply-demand imbalance. While the COVID-19 pandemic initially caused a brief decrease in buyer demand, the rebound has been swift and robust.

Looking ahead to the fall season, indications suggest a continuation of the current supply-demand dynamics, albeit with some potential shifts. The low supply of homes is expected to persist, primarily due to ongoing factors such as limited land availability and construction challenges. This scarcity is likely to keep prices elevated, making it challenging for buyers to find affordable options.

However, there are a few factors that may influence the Salt Lake City housing market this fall. Firstly, as the economy recovers from the pandemic-induced recession, there could be an increase in new home construction activity. Builders may seize the opportunity to meet the growing demand and alleviate the inventory shortage. This increase in supply could have a moderating effect on prices, providing some relief for buyers.

Secondly, interest rates continue to remain historically low. This favorable lending environment can stimulate demand and encourage prospective buyers to enter the market. However, it’s worth noting that rising interest rates in the future could potentially slow down the demand for housing, although it is difficult to predict the exact timing and extent of such a shift.

Additionally, as we progress towards the fall season, traditional market slowdowns may come into play. Historically, there tends to be a reduction in buyer activity during the colder months, as people focus on other priorities such as the holiday season. While this seasonality may provide a brief respite for buyers, it is important to remember that the underlying supply-demand dynamics will continue to shape the market.

In conclusion, the Salt Lake City housing market is likely to maintain its current trend of low supply and high demand into the fall season. While there may be slight fluctuations influenced by factors such as increased construction activity and interest rates, prices are expected to remain elevated. Buyers should be prepared for a competitive market, with limited inventory and the potential for multiple offers. Working with an experienced real estate agent and being flexible in their housing preferences can help prospective buyers navigate the challenging landscape and find their desired home within their budget.

Fall Trends: Analyzing The Greater Salt Lake City Housing Market

As the summer heat begins to fade and the leaves start turning shades of red and gold, it’s time to start thinking about what lies ahead for the Greater Salt Lake City housing market this fall. The real estate landscape in this vibrant metropolitan area has seen its fair share of ups and downs over the years. However, experts are projecting some exciting trends and opportunities for both buyers and sellers alike.

One of the key factors driving the current Salt Lake City housing market is the continued influx of people moving to the area. The city’s robust economy, coupled with its breathtaking natural surroundings and a fantastic quality of life, has attracted a growing number of individuals and families looking to call this place home. This steady population growth has contributed to the high demand for housing, resulting in a competitive market for buyers.

Despite this high demand, there have been signs of a slight cooling off in the housing market recently. As we transition into the fall season, experts predict that this trend will continue, but at a steadier pace. The rate of price appreciation is expected to moderate, providing a more balanced market environment for both buyers and sellers. This means that homeowners looking to sell their properties can still expect favorable returns, while homebuyers may find more reasonably priced options.

Another trend to watch out for this fall is the emergence of new construction projects in the Greater Salt Lake City area. With the demand for housing continuing to rise, developers have been quick to respond by introducing modern and well-designed residential communities. These new developments offer a wide range of housing options, from single-family homes to condominiums and townhouses, catering to various lifestyles and budgets. The expansion of housing inventory can help alleviate some of the supply constraints seen in recent years.

Furthermore, the fall season traditionally brings a more relaxed atmosphere in the real estate market. With the frenzy of the summer buying season subsiding, buyers may find fewer multiple offer situations and more room for negotiations. This doesn’t mean sellers should be discouraged, though. The market remains active, with motivated buyers still on the hunt for their dream homes. By strategically pricing their properties and making necessary upgrades or improvements, sellers can still attract interested buyers and secure favorable deals.

As we look ahead to this fall, it’s important to keep an eye on the broader economic landscape as well. Factors such as interest rates, job growth, and market stability can greatly influence the dynamics of the housing market. While most indicators suggest a steady and healthy real estate climate in Salt Lake City, it’s always wise to stay informed and adaptable to potential shifts.

The Greater Salt Lake City housing market is expected to showcase some exciting trends this fall. With a growing population, new construction projects, and an evolving market environment, both buyers and sellers have unique opportunities to take advantage of. By staying informed and working with knowledgeable real estate professionals, individuals can navigate this ever-changing market and make sound decisions for their housing needs.

Buyer’s Market Or Seller’s Market? Understanding Real Estate Dynamics

As the fall season approaches, homebuyers and sellers in the Greater Salt Lake City area may be wondering about the state of the local housing market. Real estate dynamics play a vital role in determining whether it is a buyer’s market or a seller’s market, ultimately shaping the experience for those looking to make a move. Understanding these dynamics is essential for both buyers and sellers to navigate the market successfully.

A buyer’s market occurs when there is more inventory than active buyers. In this scenario, buyers have the advantage of more choices and negotiating power. They can take their time to compare properties, negotiate on price, and potentially secure more favorable terms. For sellers, a buyer’s market means they may need to price their homes competitively and offer incentives to attract potential buyers.

On the other hand, a seller’s market arises when there are more active buyers than available inventory. This drives competition among buyers, often leading to multiple offers and a quicker sale process. Sellers in a seller’s market often have the upper hand in negotiations, with the possibility of receiving offers over the asking price. However, it’s important to note that even in a seller’s market, pricing a property too high or neglecting necessary repairs can deter buyers.

So, what can we expect in the Greater Salt Lake City housing market this fall? To get a better understanding, it’s crucial to analyze some key factors that drive real estate dynamics.

First and foremost, supply and demand play a significant role in determining whether it’s a buyer’s or seller’s market. Currently, the Salt Lake City area is experiencing a shortage of housing inventory, leading to high demand from buyers. This low supply of available homes gives sellers the upper hand. Multiple offers and bidding wars have become increasingly common, resulting in a greater likelihood of homes selling above the asking price.

The overall economic conditions in the Greater Salt Lake City area also impact the housing market dynamics. The region has seen steady job growth and a thriving economy, making it an attractive place to live. This influx of people moving to the area has increased the demand for housing, further amplifying the seller’s market conditions.

As a prospective buyer or seller in the Greater Salt Lake City area, it’s essential to stay informed and work with knowledgeable real estate professionals who can guide you through the intricacies of the market. Based on the current trends, it is crucial for buyers to be prepared to act fast, make competitive offers, and be open to compromises. Sellers, on the other hand, should work closely with their agents to price their homes strategically and leverage their advantages in negotiations.

In conclusion, the Greater Salt Lake City housing market this fall is undoubtedly favoring sellers, with a shortage of inventory and high demand from buyers. This seller’s market is driven by factors like low interest rates, job growth, and a thriving local economy. However, market conditions can fluctuate, and potential changes in supply, demand, and interest rates may bring more balance to the market in the future. Staying informed and working with experienced professionals can empower both buyers and sellers to make informed decisions in the ever-changing real estate landscape.

Predictions And Recommendations: Navigating The Greater Salt Lake City Housing Market This Fall

As we enter the fall season, many homeowners and potential buyers in the Greater Salt Lake City area are eager to understand the current state of the housing market and what lies ahead. With the changing economic landscape and ongoing shifts in buyer preferences, it is crucial to stay informed and make well-informed decisions. In this section, we will delve into the predictions and offer recommendations to help you navigate the Greater Salt Lake City housing market this fall.

1. Continued Price Growth:

One of the notable trends in the Salt Lake City housing market is the steady increase in home prices. This trend is expected to continue into the fall months, driven by existing low inventory levels and high demand. With eager buyers looking to secure their dream homes before interest rates rise, sellers can expect multiple offers and potentially higher selling prices. This signifies a favorable market for sellers, but it also means that buyers need to be prepared to compete and make quick decisions.

2. Inventory Challenges:

While strong demand persists, the Greater Salt Lake City area continues to face a shortage of available housing options. This scarcity of inventory is mainly due to a combination of factors, including limited new construction, a reluctance among existing homeowners to sell, and an influx of out-of-state buyers. Consequently, buyers are likely to encounter intense competition and may need to act swiftly when they find a property of interest. It is essential for buyers to work closely with experienced real estate agents who can alert them to new listings and promptly navigate the process.

3. Evolving Buyer Preferences:

The preferences and needs of homebuyers have shifted over the past year due to the global pandemic. Buyers are now placing greater emphasis on features like home offices, outdoor spaces, and more versatile living arrangements. The fall season may see continued demand for properties that offer these features, as remote work and lifestyle changes continue to influence the market. Sellers who can highlight these desirable characteristics in their listings may attract more interest and potentially command higher offers.

4. Expert Guidance:

Given the dynamic nature of the Greater Salt Lake City housing market, seeking expert guidance from real estate professionals is crucial. Working with experienced agents who possess extensive knowledge of the local market can provide valuable insights. These professionals can assist both buyers and sellers in navigating the complexities, identifying opportunities, and tailoring strategies to maximize their objectives.

The Greater Salt Lake City housing market is poised for an active and robust fall season.

Why You Need a True Expert in Today’s Housing Market

The housing market continues to shift and change, and in a fast-moving landscape like we’re in right now, it’s more important than ever to have a trusted real estate agent on your side. Whether you’re buying your first home or selling once again, it’s mission critical to work with an expert who can guide you through each unique step of the process.

The reality is, not all agents operate the same way. To truly make a powerful and confident decision as you buy or sell a home, you need a real estate expert who uses their knowledge of what’s really happening with home prices, housing supply, industry projections, and more to give you the best possible advice. Someone who can provide clarity and trust like that is essential to your success. Jay Thompson, Real Estate Industry Consultant, explains:

“Housing market headlines are everywhere. Many are quite sensational, ending with exclamation points or predicting impending doom for the industry. Clickbait, the sensationalizing of headlines and content, has been an issue since the dawn of the internet, and housing news is not immune to it.”

Unfortunately, when information in the media isn’t clear, it can generate a lot of fear and uncertainty for consumers. As Jason Lewris, Co-Founder and Chief Data Officer at Parcl, says:

“In the absence of trustworthy, up-to-date information, real estate decisions are increasingly being driven by fear, uncertainty, and doubt.”

But it doesn’t have to be that way. Buying a home is a big decision, and it should be one you feel confident making. You can lean on an expert to help you separate fact from fiction and get the answers you need.

The right agent can assist you in figuring out what’s going on at the national level and in your local area. They can debunk headlines using data you can trust. Experts have in-depth knowledge of the industry and can provide context, so you know how current trends compare to the normal ebbs and flows in the housing market, historical data, and more.

Then, to make sure you have the full picture, an agent can tell you if your local area is following the national trend or if they’re seeing something different in your market. Together, you can use all that information to make the best possible decision.

After all, making a move is a potentially life-changing milestone. It should be something you feel ready for and excited about. And that’s where a trusted expert comes in.

Bottom Line

If you want sound advice and trusted information about our local housing market, let’s connect.

Homebuyers Are Still More Active Than Usual

Even though the housing market is no longer experiencing the frenzy that was so characteristic of the last couple of years, it doesn’t mean today’s market is at a standstill. In actuality, buyer traffic is still strong today.

The ShowingTime Showing Index is a measure of how much buyers are touring homes. The graph below uses that index to illustrate buyer activity trends over time to help put today into the proper perspective.

It shows there’s seasonality in real estate. If you look at the last normal years in the market (shown in gray), there was a consistent pattern as buyer activity peaked in the first half of each year (during the peak homebuying season in the spring) and slowed as each year came to a close.

When the pandemic hit in March of 2020, that trend was disrupted as the market responded to the resulting uncertainty (shown in blue in the middle). From there, we entered the ‘unicorn’ years of housing (shown in pink). This is when mortgage rates were record-low and buyer demand was sky high. Similar seasonal trends still existed even during that time, just at much higher levels.

Now, let’s look at 2023. Traffic is down from the previous month and it’s also lower than the peaks we saw in the ‘unicorn’ years. But what’s happening isn’t a steep drop off in demand – it’s a slow return toward more normal seasonality. As the ShowingTime report explains:

“Showing traffic declined about 10% in May . . . This follows a typical seasonal pattern – disrupted by the pandemic but now beginning to return . . .”

And, to highlight this isn’t a drastic decline, let’s zoom in. Here’s a graph using just the May data for the last five years. It shows just how strong buyer demand still is.

What Does That Mean for You?

Buyers are still out there touring homes. They’re more active than they were in May 2022 (when sticker shock over higher mortgage rates started to set in) and certainly more than they were in the last normal years. So, remember, buyer activity is still strong. And it could actually be even stronger if it wasn’t constrained by the limited supply of homes for sale. According to U.S. News:

“Housing markets have cooled slightly, but demand hasn’t disappeared, and in many places remains strong largely due to the shortage of homes on the market.”

Bottom Line

Don’t lose sight of just how active the market still is today. If your house isn’t on the market, it’s not getting in front of all those buyers who are looking to make a purchase right now. Let’s connect to start the process.